Today marks one year since the historic South African national and provincial elections held on 29 May 2024—an election that altered South Africa’s political trajectory and ushered in a new era of uncertainty, negotiation, and recalibration of political power.
For the first time in the democratic era, the African National Congress (ANC) failed to secure a parliamentary majority, managing only 40.18% of the national vote. This seismic shift in political dynamics has forced the ruling party, which has governed since 1994, to enter into a Coalition arrangement or Government of National Unity (GNU) to retain power—an outcome unseen since the early years of democracy.
The Rise of the MK Party and the Fragmentation of Power
One of the most significant disruptors of the 2024 elections was the emergence of the MK Party, formed just six months prior to the 2024 elections by former ANC and South African President Jacob Zuma. Despite legal disputes over the use of the name “uMkhonto weSizwe,” the party was allowed to participate and captured an impressive 15% of the national vote—dominating KwaZulu-Natal with 45%. MK Party continue to claim the election was “rigged” and that they actually “won far more”, challenging the South African Independent Elections Commission in court.
This development delivered a crushing blow to the ANC and exposed its vulnerability to splintering. MK’s surge, along with the continued presence of the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF), meant that black nationalist votes were now split among three major players. The ANC’s challenges are compounded by internal fractures.
A Tense and Fragile Coalition: The GNU Experiment
With no party holding a majority, the ANC quickly negotiated a GNU, drawing in the Democratic Alliance (DA), which received 21.81% of the vote. The DA was rewarded with five ministerial portfolios, making it a key governing partner.
Yet the ideological gulf between the ANC and DA has created a governing nightmare. The DA has actively opposed ANC-led initiatives such as the National Health Insurance (NHI) Bill, basic education reforms, and land expropriation plans. Tensions peaked when the DA refused to support the national budget, causing a three-month deadlock in Parliament. The DA is also campaigning against ANC transformation policies of Affirmative Action and Black Economic Empowerment. DA is seen as a party that represents white minority South Africans interest.
Minister in the Presidency, Khumbudzo Ntshavheni, marked the GNU’s one-year anniversary by acknowledging the uncertainty that followed the 2024 election but emphasized the speed and efficiency with which the government was formed: “We are proud that we were able to form a government within 14 days—something even developed nations often struggle with.”
Despite the symbolism of unity, critics argue that the GNU has paralyzed governance rather than strengthened it. The SACP, a key ANC alliance partner, has announced its intent to contest future elections independently, citing disillusionment with the coalition’s direction. Many commentators noticed the hidden hand of business interests in the drafting of the GNU which some say it was created years ago by the same capital interests that funded Cyril Ramaphosa’s CR17 campaign where he accended to the ANC presidency though wide spread vote buying at the 2017 Nasrec conference.
The GNU, formed to stabilize governance, has struggled with dysfunction. The DA’s refusal to back the ANC’s budget over VAT increases led to a three-month deadlock, highlighting the coalition’s precariousness. Public approval of the GNU has dipped, with 48.5% supporting the current arrangement (down from 51.8% in 2024), while 38.6% now favor including MK and the EFF—parties seen as more capable of pressuring the ANC.
The DA’s participation in government has been a double-edged sword. While it gains credibility as a governing party, its inability to sway ANC policy has frustrated voters. As the IRR report notes, the public increasingly views the GNU as ANC-dominated.
ANC’s Decline and the Rise of the DA?
Recent polls paint a stark picture for the ANC. Support has plummeted to as low as 22% in scenarios excluding President Cyril Ramaphosa, according to the Social Research Foundation in an April 2025 report. The report further states that even with Ramaphosa, the party hovers near 30%—a far cry from its 57% showing in 2019. The DA, meanwhile, has surged to 30.3% in IRR polling, overtaking the ANC for the first time. This shift is driven by the DA’s opposition to unpopular policies like VAT hikes and its growing appeal among black voters.
Radical Economic Transformation Voices Locked Out
Notably, both the EFF and MK Party were excluded from the GNU—a decision widely interpreted as a move to sideline radical economic transformation agendas. This exclusion has sparked allegations that “monopoly capital” is engineering governance in favor of neoliberal economic policies, which many argue have failed to reverse poverty, inequality, and youth unemployment—now above 50%. The MK Party, despite its electoral performance, has struggled with internal cohesion. While popular on the ground, analysts note its parliamentary contributions remain minimal and unfocused.
The EFF, which previously drew youth support with its militant approach, has seen a slight dip in influence, particularly after the defection of prominent leaders like Floyd Shivambu, Dali Mpofu, and Mbuyiseni Ndlozi —leaving the EFF reeling from leadership instability and a diminished profile.
MK and EFF: Disruptors or Dividers?
MK’s rapid rise—particularly in KwaZulu-Natal, where it won 45%—has reshaped the opposition landscape. However, its parliamentary impact has been muted by internal divisions and a lack of clear policy direction. The EFF, though slightly diminished by defections to MK, remains a vocal force, especially among the youth. Both parties oppose the GNU and advocate for radical economic policies, but their exclusion from power has limited their influence.
The Rise of New Alternatives
Amid the political chaos, smaller parties like Rise Mzansi, ActionSA, BOSA, and the Patriotic Alliance have gained traction. These movements—mostly led by technocrats, professionals, and reform-minded leaders—are increasingly being seen as viable alternatives to the traditional political elite. ActionSA, for instance, secured control of Tshwane (Pretoria) through coalition-building, showcasing their growing influence in urban governance.
These parties appeal to South Africans tired of the old liberation-versus-liberalism binary, offering pragmatic solutions in a country battling economic stagnation, deindustrialization, and a worsening social crisis.
From Liberation Movement to Fractured Governance
The ANC, formed in 1912 by figures like Pixley ka Isaka Seme, John Langalibalele Dube, Sol Plaatje and Josiah Tshangana Gumede amongst other great leaders, was born out of resistance to colonialism and white minority rule. Over the decades, it led the charge against apartheid through mass mobilization and armed struggle—most notably via its military wing, uMkhonto weSizwe (MK), co-founded by Nelson Mandela in 1961.
Years of armed struggle and Rivonia Trial
Headquartered in Rivonia, outside Johannesburg, MK’s leadership was dealt a severe blow in 1963 when key figures, including Walter Sisulu and Govan Mbeki, were arrested at Liliesleaf Farm. The subsequent Rivonia Trial resulted in life sentences for Mandela and others, though MK’s operations continued underground and in exile. Mandela’s famous speech at the trial justified MK’s formation, stating that armed resistance became necessary only after all peaceful avenues were closed.
Following setbacks in the 1960s, MK regrouped abroad, receiving military training in Soviet-bloc countries and African nations like Angola. The 1976 Soweto uprising revitalized MK as thousands of youths fled South Africa to join its ranks. By the 1980s, MK intensified its campaign with high-profile bombings, including the 1983 Church Street attack in Pretoria, which killed 19, and the 1985 Amanzimtoti bombing, which killed five civilians. While MK primarily targeted infrastructure and government facilities, some attacks resulted in civilian casualties, sparking controversy.
MK forged alliances with liberation movements like Angola’s MPLA and Namibia’s SWAPO, fighting alongside them against South African forces in Angola. However, internal dissent and harsh crackdowns in exile camps tarnished its reputation. After apartheid negotiations began, MK suspended armed struggle in 1990 and was formally disbanded in 1993.
The Truth and Reconciliation Commission (TRC) acknowledged MK’s role in the liberation struggle but also condemned human rights abuses, including torture in its camps. Despite this, MK veterans were later integrated into South Africa’s security forces, and its legacy remains a symbol of resistance against oppression. Today, MK’s history is both celebrated and debated, reflecting the complexities of South Africa’s path to freedom.
This rise of ANC Hegemony and political dominance
The ANC was a beacon of hope for millions post-1994, sweeping elections with decisive majorities under leaders like Nelson Mandela, Thabo Mbeki, and Jacob Zuma. However, by 2024, it had lost much of its electoral dominance, worn down by corruption scandals, factionalism, service delivery failures, and economic mismanagement.
The 2024 election result is the culmination of these years of decline. The ANC’s drop from nearly 70% in 2004 to just over 40% in 2024 reflects not just voter fatigue but a profound realignment in South African politics.
Where to from Here?
As the GNU stumbles forward, South Africa remains in a state of political flux. Deep ideological divides, worsening economic conditions, and an increasingly fragmented political field suggest that the road ahead is anything but smooth.
President Ramaphosa has repeatedly called for unity and compromise, stating, “We have had to consider how to form the new government in a manner that advances the national interest… and makes use of the respective capabilities within each of the parties.”
However, one year on, the big question remains: Can this unity government deliver on the promises made to a nation long battered by inequality, corruption, and declining public trust?
For many South Africans, 2024 was a year of reckoning. 2025 may yet prove to be a year of either renewal—or collapse.
South Africa stands at a crossroads. The ANC’s liberation-era legitimacy is fading, the DA is emerging as a viable alternative, and MK and the EFF are vying to fill the vacuum. The GNU’s success or failure will determine whether the country embraces collaborative governance or descends into deeper polarization. One thing is clear: the era of ANC hegemony is over, and the battle for South Africa’s future is more contested than ever.
